TIME DEPENDENT PREDICTION OF MONTHLY GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION AND SUNSHINE DURATION USING EXPONENTIALLY WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE IN SOUTHEASTERN OF TURKEY
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Tarih
2018
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Vinca Inst Nuclear Sci
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
This paper proposes a new approach for prediction of global solar radiation and sunshine duration based on earlier years of data for the eastern region of Turkey which has a high potential of solar energy. The proposed method predicts the basic parameters using time series and an analysis method. This method is exponentially weighted moving average. This model estimates next years global solar radiation and sunshine duration and is evaluated by statistical parameters, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and coefficient of determination, to examine the success of the proposed technique. In our study, the result shows that this method is effective in predicting global solar radiation and sunshine duration as regards of MAPE and coefficient of determination. The calculated MAPE which are between 0-10 kWh/m(2) per day were assumed excellent and coefficient of determination were found significant per every year.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Exponentially Weighted Moving Average, Global Solar Radiation, Sunshine Duration
Kaynak
Thermal Science
WoS Q Değeri
Q3
Scopus Q Değeri
Q3
Cilt
22
Sayı
2
